Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Colorado, California, Washington, Illinois, Nevada. What do these states have in common? As Politico noted, all of them have tightening Senate races, leaving the DSCC and NRSC with difficult choices on where to spend money. Solid GOP gains are now likely in only three states – Indiana, Arkansas, and North Dakota.
However, in wave elections most close races tend to tilt one way or another (think 2008, 2002). If current trends hold, Republicans will still be in the vicinity of picking up 7-8 seats.
Without a doubt momentum remains with Republicans, but undoubtedly this will be a long election night (Washington state in particular is famous for its slow counting – remember the Governor’s race in 2004?).
Meanwhile, I am now tracking 91 House races and am projecting a net gain of 56 (up from 54 a few days ago and 50-52 about earlier), giving the GOP 235 seats in the House. Notable seats swinging towards the GOP are FL-2, IL-17, NY-23, and OR-5.