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Two weeks left!

October 19, 2010

Good news for the GOP in the House continues to come in, with some rare exceptions (i.e. Ben Quayle falling behind in AZ-3 and Charlie Bass in NH-2). AZ-3 had not even been on my radar screen, and though I find the Daily Kos poll dubious (given that independents in AZ-3 are essentially tied between John McCain and his Democratic rival for Senate, and favor Terry Goddard over Jan Brewer for the governorship), the GOP should take nothing for granted. Overall, my projection of a net gain of 54 seats in the House continues to hold.

At this point, Carl Paladino, the GOP nominee for Governor in New York, appears to be headed towards self-immolation. His negatives are incredibly high, even in upstate New York, and Andrew Cuomo looks likely to obliterate him at the polls in two weeks. Paladino’s style of abrasive campaigning (taking a baseball bat to Albany) has alienated many independents.

Elsewhere, it appears that Chris Dudley (the GOP nominee with the record for most free throws missed in a row in the NBA) has fallen behind John Kitzhaber for the Oregon governorship, and that Alex Sink has once again overtaken Columbia/HCA billionaire Rick Scott for the Florida governorship. Currently, I project the GOP to pick up seats in IL, IA, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI, WY (+12) and the Democrats to pick up seats in CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, RI, VT (+7), giving the GOP 29 governorships and the Democrats 21.

For the Senate, Sharron Angle’s $14 million 3rd quarter haul puts her in good position to edge out Harry Reid. GOP pickups in ND, AR, IN, PA, and WI are very likely, and Colorado just barely is leaning to the right. An Angle victory would give the GOP a total of seven seats, leaving the Democrats with a 52-48 majority. The only GOP seat I believe is vulnerable is Jim Bunning’s current Senate seat; Rand Paul, even in Republican Kentucky and with conservative winds at his back, still has not pulled away from Jack Conway.

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