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Shifting Tides?

October 14, 2010

In the past week, Republican odds for taking over the House have increased, and yet, Democratic candidates in several Senate and gubernatorial races appear to be making headway.

For the first time in weeks, in Illinois, Mark Kirk has fallen behind Alexi Giannoulias in RealClearPolitics’ aggregate polling for the Senate. In West Virginia, John Raese’s “hicks” ad seems to have backfired, as Joe Manchin has pulled even again in the polls.

After pulling even, two polls recently put Dino Rossi down by a significant margin against Patty Murray in Washington, and in Nevada, even after a $14 million haul, Sharron Angle is still deadlocked with Harry Reid. The GOP could gain anywhere from 6-10 Senate seats on Election night (with those 6 being PA, ND, IN, AR, CO, WI).

For the Governorships, in Maine Paul LePage’s numbers have fallen precipitously over the past month, and he now finds himself essentially tied with State Senate President Libby Mitchell. Carl Paladino’s own mouth appears to be doing more damage to the GOP ticket in New York than Andrew Cuomo,  and most importantly, in the key gubernatorial races in Ohio and Illinois, the Democratic incumbents have pulled into a dead heat with the GOP nominees.

However, in the House I am upgrading my expected GOP gains to 54 seats, which matches GOP House gains from the 1994 Republican Revolution.

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