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Bringing Down the House

September 28, 2010
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I’ve begun fully tracking what I consider to be the top 82 House races this year – right now, I’m projecting a net gain of 50 seats for the GOP, giving them a 228-207 advantage. Key things I took into account for races were the generic ballot, a district’s PVI, how experts (i.e. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, Nate Silver, etc…) felt about the race, and head-to-head polling. The Republican candidate is listed first, and an asterisk denotes the incumbent.

AL-2 Roby v. Bright*              GOP GAIN
AZ-1 Gosar v. Kilpatrick*        GOP GAIN
AZ-5 Schweikert v. Mitchell* GOP GAIN
AZ-8 Kelly v. Giffords*             Dem Hold
AR-1 Crawford v. Causey       GOP GAIN
AR-2 Griffin v. Elliott              GOP GAIN
CA-11 Harmer v. McNerney* GOP GAIN
CO-3 Tipton v. Salazar*         GOP GAIN
CO-4 Gardner v. Markey*     GOP GAIN
CO-7 Frazier v. Perlmutter* Dem Hold
DE-AL Urquhart v. Carney    DEM GAIN
FL-2 Southerland v. Boyd*   Dem Hold
Fl-8 Webster v. Grayson*      GOP GAIN
FL-22 West v. Klein*                GOP GAIN
FL-24 Adams v. Kosmas*      GOP GAIN
GA-2 Keown v. Bishop*          Dem Hold
GA-8 Scott v. Marshall*           GOP GAIN
HI-1 Djou v. Hanabusa             DEM GAIN
ID-1 Labrador v. Minnick*        Dem Hold
IL-10 Dold v. Seals                       DEM GAIN
IL-11 Kinzinger v. Halvorson* GOP GAIN
IL-14 Hultgren v. Foster*       GOP GAIN
IL-17 Schilling v. Hare*           Dem Hold
IN-2 Walorski v. Donnelly*    Dem Hold
IN-8 Bucshon v. Van Haaften GOP GAIN
IN-9 Young v. Hill*                 GOP GAIN
IA-3 Zaun v. Boswell*            GOP GAIN
KS-3 Yoder v. Moore              GOP GAIN
KY-6 Barr v. Chandler*          Dem Hold
LA-2 Cao* v. Richmond         DEM GAIN
LA-3 Landry v. Sangisetty     GOP GAIN
MD-1 Harris v. Kratovil*        GOP GAIN
MA-10 Perry v. Keating          Dem Hold
MI-1 Benishek v. McDowell   GOP GAIN
MI-7 Walberg v. Schauer*     GOP GAIN
MI-9 Racskowski v. Peters*   Dem Hold
MS-1 Nunnelee v. Childers*  GOP GAIN
MO-3 Hartzler v. Skelton*      GOP GAIN
NV-3 Heck v. Titus*                  GOP GAIN
NH-1 Guinta v. Shea-Porter* GOP GAIN
NH-2 Bass v. Kuster                  GOP GAIN
NJ-3 Runyan v. Adler*           Dem Hold
NM-1 Barela v. Heinrich*      Dem Hold
NM-2 Pearce v. Teague*        GOP GAIN
NY-19 Hayworth v. Hall*      GOP GAIN
NY-23 Doheny v. Owens*      Dem Hold
NY-24 Hanna v. Arcuri*        GOP GAIN
NY-29 Reed v. Zeller               GOP GAIN
NC-7 Pantano v. McIntyre*  Dem Hold
NC-8 Johnson v. Kissell*        GOP GAIN
NC-11 Miller v. Shuler*           Dem Hold
ND-AL Berg v. Pomeroy*       GOP GAIN
OH-1 Chabot v. Driehaus*      GOP GAIN
OH-6 Wilson v. Johnson*       Dem Hold
OH-15 Stivers v. Kilroy*         GOP GAIN
OH-16 Renacci v. Boccieri*   GOP GAIN
OH-18 Gibbs v. Space*            Dem Hold
OR-5 Bruun v. Schrader*        Dem Hold
PA-3 Kelly v. Dahlkemper*   GOP GAIN
PA-4 Rothfus v. Altmire*       Dem Hold
PA-7 Meehan v. Lentz             GOP GAIN
PA-8 Fitzpatrick v. Murphy* GOP GAIN
PA-10 Marino v. Carney*       GOP GAIN
PA-11 Barletta v. Kanjorski* GOP GAIN
PA-12 Burns v. Critz*               GOP GAIN
SC-5 Mulvaney v. Spratt*       GOP GAIN
SD-AL Noem v. Sandlin*         GOP GAIN
TN-4 DesJarlais v. Davis*       GOP GAIN
TN-6 Black v. Carter                 GOP GAIN
TN-8 Fincher v. Herron          GOP GAIN
TX-17 Flores v. Edwards*       GOP GAIN
TX-23 Canseco v. Rodriguez* Dem Hold
VA-2 Rigell v. Nye*                   GOP GAIN
VA-5 Hurt v. Periello*              GOP GAIN
VA-9 Griffith v. Boucher*        Dem Hold
VA-11 Fimian v. Connolly*     Dem Hold
WA-2 Koster v. Larsen*           Dem Hold
WA-3 Herrera v. Heck              GOP GAIN
WV-1 McKinley v. Oliverio     GOP GAIN
WV-3 Maynard v. Rahall*        Dem Hold
WI-7 Duffy v. Lassa                   GOP GAIN
WI-8 Ribbel v. Kagen*             GOP GAIN

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2 Comments leave one →
  1. Johnny Highroad permalink
    September 28, 2010 8:13 pm

    I’m curious about the head-to-head polling that you’re seeing. Where do you get it from?

  2. chena1 permalink
    September 29, 2010 7:45 pm

    Great question – Real Clear Politics has compiled a list of recent polls. I typically go there for information:

    For the House:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/

    For the Senate:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

    For Governorships:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/governor/

    Different sources (Rasmussen Reports, Survey USA, Gallup, CNN/Time, New York Times, WSJ, Washington Post, Quinnipiac, PPP, etc…) also publish polls quite often. I check Rasmussen, Gallup, and Survey USA daily, and other sources less frequently.

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