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GOP Senate? Wait a few years

September 15, 2010

Last night the Republican primary voters of Delaware managed to do what Democrats so far have been unable to do – sink the GOP’s chances of picking up the US Senate. Christine O’Donnell defeated Congressman Michael Castle in the Senate primary; Castle had been viewed as the moderate, electable candidate, while O’Donnell had plenty of baggage.

Instead of a moderate conservative Senator voting against the Democrats a majority of the time, Delaware will probably have a liberal Senator voting with the Democrats nearly all the time.

As of last night, I have moved Delaware from my “Likely GOP” column to the “Strong DEM Hold” column, anticipating that Chris Coons, the Democratic nominee, will likely win by a comfortable margin (between 10 and 15%) this November.

In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte and Ovide Lamontagne are deadlocked in the Senate primary – Lamontagne took a strong lead early on, but Ayotte took the lead past midnight. With about 85% of precincts reporting, Ayotte has a roughly 900 vote lead.

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