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A Look ahead – Delaware and the Tea Party

September 9, 2010
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Next Tuesday will bring about the final batch of primaries for the 2010 cycle , with the exception of Hawaii (currently slated for September 18). Several northeastern states will have major contests. In Delaware, 2008 GOP Senate nominee Christine O’Donnell is mounting a tea-party backed challenge against Congressman Mike Castle for the Senate seat once held by VP Biden. O’Donnell, who has staked out positions to the right of Castle, would likely lose though to County Executive Chris Coons in November. Delaware which gave Obama 62% of the vote in 2008, is certainly NOT Utah or Kentucky, where tea party backed candidates are heavy favorites to win.

Had the GOP nominated someone significantly more conservative that Scott Brown in Massachusetts (blue state), the “people’s seat” would probably be occupied by Martha Coakley. In Nevada meanwhile (swing state), Harry Reid was brought back from the dead with the nomination of Sharron Angle – while Angle is competitive (a product of Reid’s high negatives), it is likely that Danny Tarkanian or even Sue Lowden would have faced a better chance.

Even in Alaska (red state), GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller was under-performing incumbent Lisa Murkowski by about 15 points against the Democratic nominee, Sitka mayor Scott McAdams. (I still expect Miller to win by a comfortable margin as disaffected Murkowski supporters, assuming she does not launch a third party bid, return home)

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