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GOP Takeover Prospects

September 3, 2010

Well, now there’s a deluge of polls, and with Labor Day right around the corner, let’s see where we are –

For the House, on a district by district basis, I’m looking at a 37 seat net gain for the GOP right now – keep in mind though that there will undoubtedly be additional seats swept in by the Republican wave, as public polling for many House seats remains limited.

In the Senate, I’m expecting GOP pickups in ND, IN, AR, DE, and PA, along with GOP holds in MO, OH, FL, KY, and NH. Close races in CO, NV, IL, WA, WI, and CA are likely to yield two or more seats for the GOP, leading to an overall 7+ seat gain. Charlie Crist’s hopes for an indie bid for the Senate appears to be dying, as Kendrick Meek won the Democratic nomination there, forcing the party establishment to stand behind their candidate.

An oracle of polling analysis, Larry Sabato, recently wrote that the GOP could see a net gain of 47 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate. Mr. Sabato’s post can be found here:

Another great source, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, currently estimates between 47 and 48 Republicans will sit in the Senate come next January – one interesting thing I found was that Silver has Angle with a narrow edge over Reid in Nevada. Only Rasmussen had Angle on top in recent polling, and the RealClearPolitics polling average still has Reid with a slight lead.

Mr. Silver’s website can be found here:

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