Campaign Update: 3/25/10
Although health care legislation passed the House of Representatives (and only by 219 – 212, even though the Democrats held a massive majority), the GOP can still fight on. Indeed, state Attorney Generals from 14 states have already filed suit, arguing that the nearly $1 trillion overhaul is unconstitutional.
Expert statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has also updated his Senate projections – North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas, Indiana, and Nevada continue to look like GOP takeovers, while Pennsylvania, Colorado, and lean takeover (though Silver has noted that former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton’s polling numbers are weak against freshman Democratic Senator Michael Bennett).
Looking around the country, we find potential difficulty for the GOP in Arizona – incumbent GOP governor Jan Brewer continues to have poor approval ratings. If State Treasurer Dean Martin runs, he’ll fare better against Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard. Don’t forget though that Senator John McCain is facing a serious primary challenger from former Congressman J.D. Hayworth.
Meanwhile, in California, Field, Rasmussen, and PPIC polls have shown tightening Senate and Governor races. Both Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell are faring very well against incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, and Meg Whitman has developed a small lead against state attorney general and “Governor Moonbeam” Jerry Brown.
California Senate PPIC Fiorina (R) 43% Boxer* (D) 44% (3/25)
California Senate PPIC Campbell (R) 44% Boxer* (D) 43% (3/25)
Florida Senate Rasmussen Crist (R) 45% Meek (D) 34% (3/24)
Florida Senate Rasmussen Rubio (R) 48% Meek (D) 34% (3/24)
Indiana Senate Rasmussen Coats (R) 49% Ellsworth (D) 34% (3/23)
Indiana Senate Rasmussen Hostettler (R) 50% Ellsworth (D) 32% (3/23)
North Carolina Senate Rasmussen Burr* (R) 51% Marshall (D) 35% (3/24)
Iowa Governor Rasmussen Branstad (R) 52% Culver* (D) 36% (3/24)
Ohio Senate PPP Portman (R) 38% Brunner (D) 37% (3/24)
Ohio Senate PPP Portman (R) 41% Fisher (D) 36% (3/24)
Pennsylvania Senate Franklin Toomey (R) 33% Specter* (D) 29% (3/24)
Arizona Governor Rasmussen Brewer* (R) 36% Goddard (D) 45% (3/23)
Arizona Governor Rasmussen Martin (R) 43% Goddard (D) 38% (3/23)
Florida Governor Rasmussen McCollum (R) 47% Sink (D) 36% (3/25)
Ohio Governor PPP Kasich (R) 42% Strickland* (D) 37% (3/23)
Tennessee Governor Rasmussen Haslam (R) 46% McMillan (D) 26% (3/25)
Tennessee Governor Rasmussen Wamp (R) 42% McMillan (D) 29% (3/25)
Vermont Governor Rasmussen Dubie (R) 46% Markowitz (D) 39% (3/24)
Wisconsin Governor PPP Walker (R) 42% Barrett (D) 39% (3/24)
Wisconsin Governor PPP Neumann (R) 43% Barrett (D) 38% (3/24)