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Campaign Update: 3/25/10

March 30, 2010
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Although health care legislation passed the House of Representatives (and only by 219 – 212, even though the Democrats held a massive majority), the GOP can still fight on. Indeed, state Attorney Generals from 14 states have already filed suit, arguing that the nearly $1 trillion overhaul is unconstitutional.

Expert statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has also updated his Senate projections – North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas, Indiana, and Nevada continue to look like GOP takeovers, while Pennsylvania, Colorado, and lean takeover (though Silver has noted that former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton’s polling numbers are weak against freshman Democratic Senator Michael Bennett).

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/03/democrats-now-project-to-hold-average.html

Looking around the country, we find potential difficulty for the GOP in Arizona – incumbent GOP governor Jan Brewer continues to have poor approval ratings. If State Treasurer Dean Martin runs, he’ll fare better against Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard. Don’t forget though that Senator John McCain is facing a serious primary challenger from former Congressman J.D. Hayworth.

Meanwhile, in California, Field, Rasmussen, and PPIC polls have shown tightening Senate and Governor races. Both Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell are faring very well against incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, and Meg Whitman has developed a small lead against state attorney general and “Governor Moonbeam” Jerry Brown.

Polling Report

California Senate         PPIC                Fiorina (R) 43%           Boxer* (D) 44%          (3/25)

California Senate         PPIC                Campbell (R) 44%       Boxer* (D) 43%          (3/25)

Florida Senate              Rasmussen       Crist (R) 45%               Meek (D) 34%             (3/24)

Florida Senate              Rasmussen       Rubio (R) 48%             Meek (D) 34%             (3/24)

Indiana Senate             Rasmussen       Coats (R) 49%             Ellsworth (D) 34%       (3/23)

Indiana Senate             Rasmussen       Hostettler (R) 50%       Ellsworth (D) 32%       (3/23)

North Carolina Senate  Rasmussen       Burr* (R) 51%             Marshall (D) 35%        (3/24)

Iowa Governor              Rasmussen       Branstad (R) 52%        Culver* (D) 36%         (3/24)

Ohio Senate                 PPP                  Portman (R) 38%         Brunner (D) 37%         (3/24)

Ohio Senate                 PPP                  Portman (R) 41%         Fisher (D) 36%                  (3/24)

Pennsylvania Senate    Franklin           Toomey (R) 33%         Specter* (D) 29%        (3/24)

Arizona Governor        Rasmussen       Brewer* (R) 36%         Goddard (D) 45%        (3/23)

Arizona Governor        Rasmussen       Martin (R) 43%             Goddard (D) 38%        (3/23)

Florida Governor         Rasmussen       McCollum (R) 47%     Sink (D) 36%               (3/25)

Ohio Governor           PPP                  Kasich (R) 42%                       Strickland* (D) 37%    (3/23)

Tennessee Governor    Rasmussen       Haslam (R) 46%          McMillan (D) 26%       (3/25)

Tennessee Governor    Rasmussen       Wamp (R) 42%                McMillan (D) 29%       (3/25)

Vermont Governor      Rasmussen       Dubie (R) 46%              Markowitz (D) 39%     (3/24)

Wisconsin Governor    PPP                  Walker (R) 42%           Barrett (D) 39%                 (3/24)

Wisconsin Governor    PPP                  Neumann (R) 43%       Barrett (D) 38%                   (3/24)

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