1/25/10 – Update
A new semester has begun at Harvard, and with that comes great news on the political front! Today, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden announced that he would not run for his father’s former Senate seat. With that news, I strongly believe that Delaware at-large Congressman Mike Castle will be the next US Senator from Delaware (moderate GOP gain). The other open Democratic seat (Byron Dorgan’s in North Dakota) will almost certainly fall into Republican hands, with popular Governor John Hoeven carrying the GOP standard (strong GOP gain). Even Indiana Senator Evan Bayh (D) appears to be vulnerable, with the latest Rasmussen poll putting him three points behind Congressman Mike Pence. Arkansas’s Blanche Lincoln, Colorado’s Michael Bennett, Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter, and Nevada’s majority leader Harry Reid all face dismal polling numbers heading into the midterm elections.
Furthermore, with Scott Brown’s victory in deep blue Massachusetts, Arkansas Congressman Robert Berry has declared that he will retire at the end of this Congress. He (AR-1), along with his fellow retiring Democrat Vic Snyder (AR-2) offer the GOP great opportunities to help win back the House of Representatives this November. Indeed, the Rothenberg Political Report states that the GOP could win back up to 28 seats in the House given the political climate. That’s just 12 fewer than need to win back the House!
From now until November, I’ll be tracking elections for 36 Senate seats, 37 governorships, and the top 50 competitive House districts. Although polling numbers will comprise most of the basis for analysis, other factors, including incumbent favorability, generic ballots between the GOP and Democrats, partisan voting indices, and the President’s approval rating will be considered. Keep watching for updates!
Arkansas US Senate: Maxon-Dixon Baker (R) 43% Lincoln* (D) 39% (1/22)
Indiana US Senate: Rasmussen Pence (R) 47% Bayh* (D) 44% (1/25)
Hostettler (R) 41% Bayh* (D) 44% (1/25)
Missouri US Senate: Rasmussen Blunt (R) 49% Carnahan (D) 43% (1/21)
Nevada US Senate: Daily Kos Tarkanian (R) 52% Reid* (D) 41% (1/25)
Lowden (R) 51% Reid* (D) 42% (1/25)
Pennsylvania US Senate: Rasmussen Toomey (R) 49% Specter* (D) 40% (1/21)
California Governor: Rasmussen Whitman (R) 39% Brown (D) 43% (1/23)
Field Whitman (R) 36% Brown (D) 46% (1/22)
New York Governor: Rasmussen Lazio (R) 45% Paterson (D) 38% (1/21)
Ohio Governor: Univ. of Cincinnati Kasich (R) 51% Strickland* (D) 45% (1/25)
Indiana 9th District: Survey USA Sodrel (R) 49% Hill* (D) 41% (1/20)